A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
